IT COSTS ONE RUBLE TO GET IN, BUT TWO RUBLES TO GET OUT

2011-07-15T21:00:00.000-07:00

Yep, still, alive! Just been really busy. Over the next few weeks expect to see posts on the upcoming elections, sochi, the stans and maybe a thing or two on the Russian military. If your looking to pick up some swag, check out Steve Levine's blog over at FP and get in on the bidding for the next prez of Russia.

2012 Elections news

2010-08-02T22:58:00.000-07:00

LA Times story on Putin's latest moves toward the 2012 elections. It seems he's out and about on a psuedo campaign. With a higher profile now, it may be the start of him attempting to retake the presidency in two years. Time will tell.

Contrast the LA Times story of Putin's activities with this clip from the current president that he posted on twitter. I'm sure Medvedev has done alot more (I've been very behind on my russian news) but it sounds like Putin may have the lead on him in terms of dealing with the recent disasters in Russia and portraying himself as the more able leader.

Busted!

2010-06-29T07:08:00.000-07:00

Woke up this morning to the report that the FBI had (or is) arrested 11 members of a russian spy ring operating on the East Coast. According to the new reports, all were "illegals" operating under a cover provided by the SVR. Oleg Kalugin is quoted as being surprised that the SVR had so many "illegals" operating here in the states.

So the question stands that as to why now? What will the impact be on US-Russia relations. As to the why now, I don't know, but it will be interesting to see when and how the Russians drop the other shoe in Moscow. If anything, the spy ring may have made some critical advance in it efforts to There is most likely an interesting backstory to this that we will not be privy to for several years. What will the impact be on relations? Probably none as the Russians have begun to tilt a little more westward.

President Medvedev hits the Twitter...

2010-06-28T13:55:00.000-07:00

Prez D Medvedev has gone and gotten a Twitter account just in time for the G20 conference in Toronto. I'll have to say he's not doing a bad job of tweeting. But based on his tweets you can see where he is pushing his international agenda with his Twitter that

The #G8 and #G20 were productive. We discussed important issues for everyone: drug trafficking, the environment, nuclear safety and finance.

Although I think he needs to get the word out more. He does trail Prez Obama by about 44 million followers.

Russia wants to build new US air refueling tanker?

2010-03-21T00:43:00.000-07:00

Saw this interesting report on CNN this morning. While it will most likely be DOA in the US Congress for several reasons, it was interesting to read this. While the Russian side of the story focused on the economic aspects such a deal, such as broader access to foreign markets, the reader can't help to wonder about how it ties in with Russia's military modernization efforts. Russia is still pushing forward with its purchase of an amphibious ship from France and UAVs from different countries. So I think in the end, this proposal represents two efforts by the Russians, an attempt to gain better access to various markets based their competition for the refueling tanker and more access to western technology and the acquisition process.

2010-02-24T12:50:00.000-08:00

This is a follow up of sorts to my post on "Operation Sapphire", which was the US operation to remove a large amount of highly enriched uranium from Kazakhstan.

The Washington Post today has an online pictorial and story by Philip Pan that describe the results of Soviet nuclear weapons testing in Kazakhstan and the current struggle to control access to uranium in the country. Pan does a good job looking in depth at the issues of uranium access that cross borders from Russia, to Japan, North America and Europe. One note on the online pictorial, some of the images of the people affected by the radiation from the testing can be rather graphic and stark, so consider yourself warned before you click on the link.

What should be of concern in who ends up with control of Kazakh uranium are the regional concerns as Iran looks to develop its nuclear program. While it looks like there is no direct outright connection between Kazakh uranium and Iran's nuclear program has been acknowledeged officially that I know of, the geography of the area makes the possibility of a connection a little more real.

David Hoffman, a Washington Post contributing editor, has released a new book, Dead Hand, that explores the history of the US/USSR arms race during the 80s and 90s. In it, he devotes a few pages to Operation Sapphire in which he does report a connection between Kazakhstan and Tehran. His reporting only makes the concern of a connection between Central Asia and Iran's nuclear program a little more real. If you don't have time to get the book, take a listen to Terrry Gross' interview with Hoffman on her NPR Show Fresh Air.

Thanks to the Perry Castaneda online map collection at University of Texas for the map of Central Asia.

Reflections on the Soviet Experience in Afghanistan

2010-02-22T18:04:00.000-08:00

Two articles have caught my attention over the past few days in relation to the Red Army in Afghanistan. The first one comes from Danger Room as a crosspost from russian navy blog. It's an old Red Army document given to soldiers to better understand the Afghan culture in an attempt to keep the soldiers from crossing cultural lines. It comes across as pretty well thought out and seems similiar to another document that the US Army put out in WWII for US soldiers operating in Iraq.

The second was a Radio Free Europe news story via Dave Johnson's Reading List (awesome reading list BTW!!) that looks back at the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan 30 years ago. While the article is generally good in its arguments, one part stands out. Gregory Feifer, the author makes a somewhat flawed conclusion at the end of the article, italics added:

"Vostrotin and other veterans predict that the United States is doomed to the same fate the Soviet forces met in Afghanistan. But despite their obvious similarities, the conflicts differ in fundamental ways. U.S. and NATO fighting forces are far better trained and equipped, and Afghans still support the international drive to establish a viable Afghan state."

One could make the argument that the soviets were better trained and equipped with the latest in Soviet Army technology, or similarly about the US Army in Vietnam. At the end of the day, take a look at who was left standing in each country. Or better yet, recall the conversation between a US negotiator and his North Vietnamese counterpart at the end of the Vietnam War where the US Officer, in an attempt to salvage some pride tells the other officer that the US Army never lost a battle in Vietnam. The Vietnamese officer ponders the statement for a second and then tells the American that while true, it was the American, that was standing there suing for peace.

Though I wouldn't quite go along with the narrative that the US is doomed to failure in Afghanistan simply due to the past history of foreign armies in Afghanistan, it would be well served to have a complete grasp of history in Afghanistan and realize when its pitching down well down roads, as Feifer shows in his article.

Corruption in the Russian Military

2010-01-26T14:26:00.000-08:00

Thankfully, layovers in airports give you time to catch up on stuff, like blogging! Woo-hoo!

This new report popped up in the Barents Observer on the level of corruption in the Russian Military. Last year (2009) approximately 3 billion rubles of defense spending was lost to bribes. While corruption is a given in any military system due to the fairly large commit of national funds to militaries these days, what stands out in this story is the fact that the amount from this past year was double from last year.

So far, eight generals were relieved and sentenced to jail time ranging from three to five years. While it is good to have heads roll at the top for crimes such as this, it is indicative that corruption and bribery is indemic at all levels of russian government, from the justice system, to education. President Medvedev has made anti-corruption a major facet in his term as president insisting that govt officials have complete transparency in their financial dealings and compensation so as to make it apparent when someone is living outside the means one would expect of such an official.

As reforms continue (or don't) especially in the military realm, more such convictions at all levels must be a facet to make it clear that the Russian military is leaving the old ways behind as it strives to make professionalism a hall mark of its reformed military. Reform of the military is more than just new purchases of equipment, it is a major change in the way that the officers and sergeants see their service.

OK, time to go catch a jetplane!

Credit to Barents Observer for the pic.

How to welcome in 2010 like a true Russian

2009-12-31T15:08:00.000-08:00

With an AK-47 shaped bottle of Vodka, that's how! Thank you Mikhail Kalishnikov.

H/T to Danger Room

Start of the 2012 Presidential elections already?

2009-11-30T09:39:00.000-08:00

Over the weekend it was reported that the Nevsky Express was derailed by a bomb on the track as it traveled from St. Petersburg to Moscow. While the details are still coming out and no one has yet to claim responsibility for the attack, one has to wonder if this is the opening act of the elections for 2012. While Putin may be a lock for another term as the President of Russia, will there be similar attacks with other murky identities of terrorists and terrorist groups? As Patriarch Kirill stated in his sermon Sunday "“Russia is a peaceful country,” he said, “but when the hand of the enemy is raised up against our way of life, we will ably protect our fellow citizens.”

So this raises the question, who is the enemy in this latest bombing? The Chechen wars were partly driven by the bombings of the apartments in Moscow, in which several things seemed askew, such as the third bomb which failed to go off and also the fact that none of the government building in Moscow were never bombed. Is this a ploy to manipulate voters feelings of security ahead of 2012? It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

More Military Modernization Woes

2009-10-16T06:38:00.000-07:00

In the past in this blog I've written about Russia's ongoing military modernization efforts. One point I have made is whether or not Russia can financially sustain its modernization efforts. The latest ISCIP Analyst presents a good argument that Russia will have a very difficult time paying for its modernization.

According to the posting, Russia has begun to underfund it's modernization efforts and many of the technical, command and control, and other like functions and the ability to produce them have atrophied in Russia in the past couple of years. The fact that Russia is now looking to purchase UAVs from Isreal and a Command and Control Helicopter Carrier from France is indicative of the fact that Russia has fallen so far behind in this area that it is willing to buy them from the outside in an effort to jumpstart their ability understand both how systems like this are created but then also are integrated both doctrinally and operationally speaks to how far Moscow still has to travel before it can truly leave the old cold war ghost of the Red Army behind it.

Wow, vodka cures anything...

2009-09-29T07:21:00.000-07:00

From Danger Room this morning. Apparently vodka helps cure you of radiation poisoning. Whoda thunk?

Project Sapphire, the good old days

2009-09-28T15:29:00.000-07:00

The early nineties were great. Your biggest concern was not bumping into an unmarked, left over minefield in the Former Republic of Yugoslavia, Russia and the US held joint manuevers, it was good times for all.

Meanwhile, in Kazakhstan, the US paid the Kazakh government 27 million dollars to take several hundred tons of highly enriched uranium off of its hands. David Hoffman, in the Washington Post, tells the story of a US counter proliferation project called Project Sapphire. While it's not George Clooney chasing a rogue nuclear bomber around the world, it does show how good policy can effectively keep nuclear genies in the bottle. Nuclear material has value to countries as either a source of energy, or a source of power to cow their neighbors or bring parity with another nuclear power in the region.

Our best policy in this region would be to keep encouraging Russian and Central Asian counter proliferation efforts both within their borders and in the region. The latest revelation about Iran's nuclear weapons efforts only make their cooperation more important.

Shades of '91

2009-09-27T17:21:00.000-07:00

Pavel Felgenhauer has reported on a Russian Army incursion into Moscow earlier this week. What is most disturbing about this incident is that is was a senior military officer who had chosen to use his own power to subvert what appeared to be a legal investigation into the mis-doings of his son-inlaw.

The sending of armed troops, unasked for by the Russian government, into Moscow does bring to light some serious command and control issues for both Medvedev and Putin. Felgenhauer rightly points out the implications for the Kremlin. This may result in Medvedev and Putin becoming prisoners in their own city unless Shamonov is crushed and made an example of.

Shumanov has also been a very vocal supporter of COL Budanov, a Russian Tank Regiment who was charged with and found guilty of the murder of a teenage Chechen girl during Russia's campaign there. The Budanov case has been an irritant for Moscow due to the constant attention brought to it by Anna Politkovskaya in her articles and books. While Putin has poo-poo'd her death, the reason she was killed can probably be tied back to her work on Chechnya, amongst other things. Shumanov unearthing Budanov in his defense probably does little to help him. Shumanov did serve in Chechnya.

While this does provide Moscow with an embarrasing and very thought provoking incident, their is a silver lining in all of this. Defense Minister Anatoliy Serdyukov has been leading the charge for Medvedyev's military reforms and professionalization of the military. His biggest obstacle so far has been the general officer corps, who see the changes as a threat to them and the Russian military officer corps as a whole. What better hammer to have to beat them into submission than that of a russian general officer using elite special troops to barge into Moscow for his own personal interests.

Use it wisely, well and often is the only advice I could give.

Pulling the plug on missle defense in Eastern Europe

2009-09-20T16:18:00.000-07:00

At the end of the week, President Obama announced that he is changing America's concept for missle defense in regards to countering Iran's future nuclear ballistic missile capabilities. Previously, the US had planned to counter Iranian missiles through a series of radars and interceptors stationed in Europe. This obviously has been an irritant to Moscow since it was announced. Since the end of the cold war, and even prior to it, Moscow has considered it's strategic nuclear capability as an answer to what it percieved as NATOs and the US military edge. It believes that what keeps Russia safe at night is it's strategic nuclear forces.

If we were still looking to fight a nuclear WWIII, that line of thought would hold some water, but Russia, through its recent military history, and it's observation of recent US military history, I think has seen that it can no longer think that way. Statements by Medvedev over this past year have shown that the political leadership want to break that old way of thinking. Russia now wants a military that is professional, flexible and agile. He needs a force that can quickly move to trouble spots and get control before the violence spreads. Medvedev knows that the threats that Russia faces will be along and inside its border and nuclear weapons will do nothing to solve them.

Consider this also. Russia has a strong concern about the part of the Near Abroad that encompasses the caucuses and the central asia. This part of the near abroad have invasion routes in the past into Russia and also now host a growing muslim population that chafes under Moscow's rule and influence. With our withdrawal from a robust and very public missile defense program in eastern europe to a more low key program, it may put the onus on Russia to become more involved in counter proliferation in the area. Why? For one thing, having a nuclear armed Iran in the vicinity of it's near abroad runs counter to its own national security. Secondly, Russia has been a major provider of military equipment to Iran. By this virtue of arms sales that Iran really needs, Russia has a greater stick and carrot effect than we could hope for. Thirdly, Russia and Iran have much in common, government wise. Both countries are "managed democracies". They both hold open and democratic elections (for the most part), but the powers that be, whether it be the Siloviki/United Russia Party or the Revolutionary Council and Supreme Leader maintain a very strong sway over the government and its actions. As we see in international relations, similar countries tend to associate, cooperate, build concensus and create coaltions with like countries. That is why it is possible that Russia would also have more of an influence over Iran than we could hope to have in the near future.

So in the end, I believe that this is a shrewd move by the Obama administration which opens doors for Russia to contribute more positively to the global community in terms of counter proliferation. But what does Putin think...

Color Photos of Russian Life

2009-09-13T14:06:00.000-07:00

Newsweek on line has a breathtaking series of color photographs of russian life posted on line. The photos span a period from the 1900s to just before the revolution in 1917. I found two amazing things about the series. The first is how well the colors are captured in the photography. You get a sense that you are actually there looking at the subject with your own eyes, rather than through a medium. Take a look at picture 22, "The Emir of Bukhara" and see how the colors of his robes jump out at you. The second is how well the photos have been preserved. Many of these photographs have survived well over a century. Truly a treat for the eyes.

A review of 1612

2009-09-09T16:49:00.000-07:00

I finished watching the movie 1612 last week and thought I would share my thoughts on the movie. The movie covers a period of Russian history when a series of foreign monarchs laid claim to the russian throne and Russia experienced a period of "The Troubles". The movie is told through several viewpoints, to include the supposed Tsarina, Princess Kseniya Godunova; her Polish backers, Prince Pozharsky who is leading a peoples army to restore a russian to the throne, and a young russian serf who was in the employ of the royal family at the time it was overthrown and now seeks to help restore the Princess to the throne, and a Roman Catholic cleric who has been seconded from Rome to help advise the princess.

The movie itself runs a little over two hours so I won't go too far into the plot. I will say that the movie does explore some traditional russian themes in the context of history. One of the first ones that you will catch on is the importance of the Russian Orthodox faith to Russians. It plays heavily in several scenes and plays a role in the concluding scenes of the movie. It also compares the strength of the Orthodox faith to that of the Catholic faith. The Catholic prelate finds his faith lacking in the movie and after a meeting with a Russian monk, who is also a mystic, realizes that the logic and apologetics that are so important to Western Christianity/Catholicism pale to the deep faith and mysticism embodied by the Russian monk who has spent the entire period of the troubles standing in a tree wearing a heavy iron cross, as a sacrifice to God and will continue to do until the troubles end. The Catholic prelate in the end, takes the monks advice and leaves on is own spiritual journey, growing out his hair and beard as the Russian priests do. While the director chooses to show the importance of the Orthodox faith to the Russians at that time, it is important to note that the Orthodox Church has resumed that role as of late, with Patriarch Kirill taking a more front and center role in the government of Russia, acting at times as a defacto ambassador for Russia and also having a very public opinion on different pieces of legislation in the Duma.

It also explores the past relationships with its near abroad neighbors, in this case, the Poles who for a while placed several rulers on the throne in Moscow. The takeaway from this is that in order to understand how Russia sees itself in relation to its neighbors, observers have to take a very deep dive in history to get a good understanding. Not only did the Poles conquer Moscow, but a Catholic was placed on a throne, anathema to a country that is so proudly Orthodox. One can take a shorter view of history with a different neighbor and see why the relationships today are less than positive. A little over a year ago, Russia invaded Georgia. While Georgians and Russians have never been fans of each other, an understanding of pre and post WWII history gives one a little understanding of it. Remember that Stalin succeeded Lenin and launched a series of bloody purges on the Russians (and other countries in the USSR too) and other brutalities. Keep in mind that Stalin was Georgian so now it becomes clear why the Russians and the Georgians have little love for each other.

One other theme that comes through in the movie is the Russian tendancy to turn to a Russian leader who is shows a strong hand during times of trouble. The concept is mentioned several times throughout the movie and concludes with an epilogue that segueways into the rule of the Romanovs that lasts until Nicholas abdicates in 1917.

While the movie is not a true historical portrayal, it does convey to the western viewer an understanding of the Russian thought process. So if your looking for a good way to kill a few hours watching a good movie, give 1612 some consideration. It is available in DVD with english subtitles if you are not a russian speaker.

New HMFIC for the Training of the Russian Military

2009-08-15T19:00:00.000-07:00

Russia has placed a new general officer in charge of the training of the Russian military. Some information on Lieutenant General Valery Yevnevich does exist out there. According to Jamestown, Yevnevich spent almost seven years in Moldova overseeing the Russian peacekeeping operation in that area. The big cesspool of Moldova is the Transistria region that has become a center of crime. Anything from human trafficking to drugs and weapons smuggling, it's an A-Z of crime.

What's intersting to note is that Yevnevich replaced Alexander Lebed, who was apparently recalled due to pressure from mob leadership in the area. Yevnevich, though, was able to overcome the political strength of the criminals in Transistria and pretty much defang them and remove and destroy just about all of the military material that had been passed to them over the years. Yevnevich appears to be a true professional officer dedicated to the success of the Russian military. One has to wonder if he'll work to professionalize the military and develop it into a factor of democratic strength in Russia, or will he work to strengthen Russia as a threat to the region? Time will tell, but I'll hope for the former.

Medvedev wants Chechen murders solved

2009-08-15T18:39:00.000-07:00

The murders of human rights activists in Chechnya continues with latest two deaths, those of Zarema Sadulayeva and her husband, Alik Dzhabrailov earlier this week. Like the earlier deaths of Estimorova and Politkovskaya, they were people who were trying to show the rest of the world about the goings on in Russia and Chechnya.

Yesterday, President Medvedev announced that he wants Ramzan Kadyrov to work harder to solve these murders. While this may sound good and play well in the press, what power or force will Medvedev wield over Kadyrov to truly make this happen? Ramzan's ascent to power and his support from Putin (awarded the Hero of Russia and controller of reconstruction funds in Chechnya) makes it clear that Kadyrov understands he has carte blanche to control Chechnya as he sees fit to keep it from flaring up again. Kadyrov's statements on the murder of Estimorova only help to reinforce this view of him as Moscow's tough guy in the region.

Sarah Mendelson over at Foreign Policy has a great analysis on the situation in Chechnya these days, well worth the read.

Straight F'ing Insane

2009-07-28T06:07:00.000-07:00

From the boys over at Danger Room. A Russian fighter pilot was paid to eject from an SU-35 jet for a movie. Link and pic below.

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2009/07/picture-this-crazy-ivan-hits-eject/

Was Ramzan Kadyrov complicit in the murder of Estemirova?

2009-07-19T17:30:00.000-07:00

I was doing some reading this weekend and JRL had a good article on the murder of Estemirova last week. I have since learned that Estemirova was Chechen and had been critical of Kadyrov in her writings and publications, much like Anna Politkovskaya had been in Russia of Putin. In fact, they were friends with each other.

Here is the article by Roland Oliphant in the JRL. Oliphant poses a good question in this paragraph...

"Filling in the intervening hours will be the job of the investigators Russian President Dmitry Medvedev promptly ordered to the region. On Medvedev’s instruction Alexander Bastrykinu, the chief of the Investigative Committee of the Prosecutor General’s Office, arrived in the region on Thursday, will face some tough questions, and they are likely to lead to uncomfortable territory. How, for example, did the killers cross the border into Ingushetia, through a region where a massive “joint security operation” is meant to be going on to catch the insurgents who attacked Ingush President Yunnus Bek Yevkurov last month? Why were they not caught by President Ramzan Kadyrov’s supposedly all-powerful security forces? What was their motive, and whose orders were they acting on?"

The questions that Oliphant poses really lead the reader to one of two conclusions. The first is that the Border Guards are running a less than competent security program in Ingushetia if something like this occurred. The second conclusion would be that the there was some complicity on the behalf of Moscow in the murder of Estemirova. The Border Guards are a subordinate agency of the FSB, Putin's old agency. One wonders if Kadyrov maybe didn't ask for some help from Moscow in disposing of Estemirova? A somewhat tenious thread, I know, but not too unbelievable given what happens in Russia lately.

Human Rights Activist Kidnapped and Murdered in Chechnya

2009-07-15T14:47:00.000-07:00

This just came across the news on BBC. According to the article Natalia Estemirova, a Russian Human Rights activist was kidnapped and murdered. Estimirova had worked with Anna Politkovskaya in the past on documenting abuses in the Soviet Union, especially in Chechnya. While this could have just been another criminal act by Chechyan thugs, the parralels between Estimirova and Politkovskya are simply to strong to ignore.

If you haven't had the opportunity to read Politkovskaya's book "Putin's Russia", please do take the time to pick it up and read it. Politkovskaya literally paid with her life for her work to expose what was happening in Russia under Putin and how Chechnya was being used as a ruse to distract the Russian public from the stripping away of their rights. Politkovskaya was murdered October 6, 2006 in her apartment complex in Moscow. Ironically, October 6th is also the birthday of Vladimir Putin, target of many of her investigative reports. Her case still remains unresolved.

The murder of Estimirova will be a test case for Medvedev. As a, lawyer he has committed to a Russian government that is transparent and dedicated to the rule of law. If it appears that Russia's security services are indeeed involved with the kidnapping and murder of Estemirova, Medvedev will have to show that his true independence as a president and seek to have these offenders prosecuted, and not be just another Putin crony.

It went well with the borscht...

2009-07-05T05:35:00.000-07:00

Ok, easing back into this blogging thing... Apparently Russian fisherman caught a squeaking alien... and then ate it! The horror of it all! I wonder if it was because it was squeaking in Georgian? But hey, its from Pravda, so it's gotta be true, right?

http://english.pravda.ru/science/mysteries/07-02-2007/87167-alien_monster-0

Update

2009-06-12T04:04:00.000-07:00

Sorry no posts for a while but I'm finishing out my Thesis right now. Expect something new after the 4th of July break on Russia's New National Security Strategy. Yes, they finally put it out!!

2009-05-16T04:49:00.000-07:00

Since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 and the beginning of democracy, Gazprom has pretty much been the sole source provider of natural gas and petro products to Russia and a major supplier to Western Europe. But since the global economy has been tanking for a while now, what used to be one of Russia's main economic engines has now become a dead weight dragging the russian economy down even further.

Andrew Kramer does a good job in his article pointing out how the Russians (Putin) had banked on a rising petroleum market to sustain the Russian economy and how this strategy is now failing. Russia had basically become a rentier state, depending on Gazprom and other similar industries to fuel its growth through the sale of its commodities to other countries. Where Russia went wrong with it's strategy is the contract it went into with several central asian states that provided the natural gas to Gazprom. According to the article, Gazprom negotiated a fixed price of $340 per 1k cubic meters of natural gas from the central asian states through 2028. The demand for natural gas has fallen so far that the Ukranians are expected to pay on average $230 per 1k cubic meters and Europe $280 per 1k cubic meter for the remainder of this year. That's anywhere between a $60 to $110 loss per 1k cubic meter. And with the global economy still in the doldrums for the next year or so, this does not bode well for Gazprom and Russia as long as gas prices remain depressed.

Now, I'm not an economics guy, but I would figure 3-4 years of sagging gas prices will really put Russia in a bind. They would have to see a significant boost in prices to make up for lost ground, but still not do it too fast that they cause a spike followed by another down turn in prices. They'll have to handle this one with kid gloves.

Maybe they can find a T. Boone Pickenovich?

CFE, maybe?

2009-05-14T09:25:00.000-07:00

Yahoo news is reporting today that the Russians maybe willing to re-ratify the stalled Convential Forces Europe treaty. But Russia has apparently imposed some of its own conditions before it is willing to sign on. One is the lifting of the restrictions that limit its ability to move forces within Russia itself without notifying NATO.

So why would Russia now want to ratify the treaty with new conditions lifted by itself. It might be due to some of the results from the latest NATO exercise in Georgia. Amongst the participants were several former Russian Republics who later pulled out of the exercise. If I had to speculate as to why they pulled out, I would guess Russian pressure. If Russia now gains the ability to move its forces in Russia with little say from the west, they now gain the ability to use that lever of national power more freely against countries of the near abroad that may be taking what they thought was sovereign activity, but frustrates or upsets Moscow. I would guess having a Russian Armor Brigade show up at your border one morning becuase Moscow was upset with you might be considered a game changer.
Thanks to the Perry Castaneda online map collection!

Picking at Misha's scabs

2009-05-05T07:46:00.000-07:00

A Georgian Army tank battalion apparently mutinied earlier today. The exact reason is not known but the Georgian government has said it was due to Russian meddling and was an attempt to assassinate Prez Saakashvili. The Russians deny this, of course.

I think the truth is somewhere in between the two sides. It's pretty much an open secret with Vladimir Putin that he wants Saakashvili gone and someone more amenable to Moscow in his place. Saakashvili, has been less than helpful in his own cause with a less than level headed approach to Russia this past year. Add in the past relationship between Russia and Georgia dating back to Stalin and you can see how this love fest unfolds.

The tank battalion commander was quoted as saying:

"One cannot calmly look at the process of destroying the country calmly, at the ongoing [political] confrontation," the battalion commander, Mamuka Gorgishvili, said in a statement carried by local news agencies. "However, there will be no aggressive actions on behalf of our tank unit. We are in barracks and we are not going to leave them."

In the end, I think there was some Russian provocation in this, but I would love to see some third party reporting in the media looking into the tank battalion's state of mind amongst it's soldiers. That would really help to bring some clarity to the whole situation. But I think this won't be the last and we've got keep a close eye on Saakashvili and how he intends of spinning the NATO exercise next week. Will he keep his mouth shut and bob his head up and down or use it poke the Bear again.

An interesting aside on the NATO exercise comes at the end of this NPR article on the coup. Five former Warsaw Pact or USSR countries that were originally scheduled to participate have now backed out. It might seem that Russia's message of not playing well with NATO might be getting through.

Me and Dmitry, blogging buddies!

2009-05-05T07:43:00.000-07:00

Yeah, not so much. Some of you more hard core Russophiles have probably already bookmarked this one, but in case you haven't here is the official blog of Pres Dmitry Medvedev. Enjoy.

Russian Helicopters For The Iraqi Air Force!! ehhh... not so much

2009-05-05T07:16:00.000-07:00

Sharon Weinberg over at Danger Room! has been doing a bang up job detailing the arms sale that never really happened. This is one of a few cases here in DC where a contractor who has no previous experience in a certain area suddenly jumps in with the lowest bid and proceeds to screw the whole process up. A few years back everybody kind of scratched their head with the awarding of a contract to the L3 corp to build a replacement for the venerable Sherpa cargo aircraft flown by the Army. If you had worked with L3 in the past, they were mainly known for developing computer systems for the department of defense. The company that Sharon writes about in this article is ARINC, who mainly advertise their IT and communications solutions here in the beltway. I really didn't see too much on their website about military helicopter fleet purchases. But bottom line, the USG paid an S***load of money for the helicopters to a Russian firm and still really has nothing to show so far. I'm curious to see how this one plays out.

GRU shakeup

2009-04-27T09:24:00.000-07:00

If you haven't seen it already, GEN Korabelnikov, Chief of the GRU, was formally "sacked", as the brits put it, over the weekend. I'm still sorting through the echo chamber, but it looks like a deputy, GEN Shlyakturov has been called out of the bullpen to take over at the head of the GRU. More to follow as I sort this one out.

OU812!

2009-04-21T16:48:00.000-07:00

Yeah, looks like we're not the only ones rethinking the purchase of a crazy expensive jet fighter that nobody can really explain the need for.

Fighters such as the F35 JSF, F22 Raptor or Sukhoi PAK FA are known as 5th generation fighters. While they look neat and sexy, the concept of these fighters was developed during the cold war or at the end of it when the only real enemy either side have known was other guy staring at them from the other end of the Fulda Gap. Since the end of the cold war, both the US and Russia have been involved the in the small brutish little wars that have seen fit to thaw out such as Bosnia, Kosovo, Chechnya, Afghanistan, Georgia where the need for an air to air superiority jet fighter really hasn't been needed to the extent they were envisioned.

So what both us and the Russians end up with is a 20-30 year old concept fighter that neither side has even yet to field in numbers that really matter.

Take a look at also how each side views the future world. The US sees that we've left the cold war days behind and face a world where the tools of the cold war may not be the best to keep in the tool box. The US sees that the world it faces presents the complex problems found in irregular warfare and it has to be prepared to meet those challenges. The Russians have their own view point, rightly so. They see energy and energy access as key to their national security (BTW, has anybody seen their latest national security strategy, it's late!!). They've stated that they will take the neccessary measures to keep that access open, and that apparently requires new equipment that is geared towards convential combat. If that's the case, then that means good old fashioned fightin!

Honestly, I'm not sure either the US or Russia has got this one completely figured out, but not buying the 5th generation fighters is probably the best for all, it's just a waste of money better spent elsewhere like joint training exercises!

Grad Students

2009-04-20T16:12:00.000-07:00

This kind of says it all. Serious Russia stuff later this week, I had to clear out the rest of my mid terms.

2009-04-13T21:28:00.000-07:00

Thanks to redbannernorthernfleet for this little gem.

Take off, 'eh, we were here first you hosers!

2009-04-07T14:42:00.000-07:00

Ahh, new week, new blog entry. Git 'er done!
Tuesday also heralds the arrival of Defense News in my mail box and below the fold they're carrying a story on how Russia and Canada are posturing themselves militarily to secure parts, or all of the Arctic for themselves or allies. For those of you not getting the defense news, ta-da! The latest Russian National Security Strategy (still AWOL by the way) drafts floating around the net do claim the Arctic as key to Russia's national security. Russian Security Council HMFIC Nikolai Patrushev wrote in the Rossiiskaya Gazeta on March 30th that:

"The United States of America, Norway, Denmark and Canada are conducting a united and coordinated policy of barring Russia from the riches of the shelf," Patrushev wrote in the March 30 issue of the government's Rossiiskaya Gazeta newspaper. "It is quite obvious that much of this doesn't coincide with economic, geopolitical and defense interests of Russia, and constitutes a systemic threat to its national security."

Glad to see Nikolai keeping the traditional russian paranoia going. Of course this forced Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Lawrence Cannon to put down his Molson's and reply that Canada "will not be bullied"

Both sides have announced plans to build or refurbish naval and ground bases and establish some form of permanent or semi-permanent force in the region. I don't expect either side will be placing too large of a force up there for the simple reason that although global warming is proving wildly successful these past few decades, the Arctic is still a nasty place with winter temps in the very low negative double digits and a very short summer to conduct extended training. Logisticially, it's difficult to sustain troops in the field due to the need to transport huge amounts of fuel, food and other supplies simply to keep them alive. Basically, very little gets done over a whole lot of time.

The Canadians, for their part are maintaining a steadily growing defense budget, averaging a sustained 2% growth rate in defense spending through 2031. The latest defense (or defence) philosophy for the Canadians is that want to focus more on homeland security threats, and I'll bet this latest move by Russia has really focused their attention.

So while it will take a very long time to thaw out the Arctic, the trigger for any future build up (probably by the Russians first) will the be discovery of any new significantly large oil fields/reserves in the Arctic. Once that happens, it'll be like a good old fashioned hockey fight! If it does, I'll be rooting for Doug and Bob McKenzie, eh.

Da comrade, ve can play very good shakhmaty!

2009-04-02T19:23:00.000-07:00

I'll hand it to the russians, they know how to play shakhmaty (chess) very well. Back in Feb 2009, Russia offered the Kyrgzygs (dammit people, it's called vowels!) some 2.15 Billion dollars in "aid" in exchange for shutting down Manas Air Base in Kyrgzygstan. For the uninitiated, Manas was (still is??) our major airfield for flying stuff into A-Stan. Its capable of handling about four C17s or C5 cargo aircraft, so it was kind of important to us, and we had kind of sunk a s--t load of money into developing the place.

Now, the Russian are playing nice-nice, but this latest move is not unexpected. Somebody, somewhere reading this blog post just went "pfft, whatever dude, we can fly the stuff in from somewhere else" Eh, not quite. Not Uzbekistan, since the Russians did the same thing to us in 2005 with the K2 airbase. Can't go to Tajikistan since the Indians have already built up the airbase at Farkhor and us shacking up with Indians in Tajikistan would just piss off our allies in the Afghan war, the Pakistani's to no end.

Turkmenistan has maintained a policy of neutrality, so a big fat nyet from them. As for Kazakhstan, yes they have airfields we could have used, but after the Russians and the Chinese, especially the Chinese bitched and moaned about an American base, that one died off to. Also keep in mind that Kazakhstan has a major oil pipeline into China ($$ bitches!) and is building a similar natural gas one into China ($$ bitches!) probably a few implied threats about these projects brought the Kazaks into line ricky ticky.

You also just can't fly stuff into A-Stan from Europe or where ever. You actually have to pile the goods somewhat close to the theater so you can quickly organize pallets of items that are in demand and get them on the next cargo plane smokin'. Its alot more efficent logistically and gives the loggies more flexibility in terms of buidling these pallets and gets the stuff into the hands of the people who need it quicker.

So, as the Romans would say, "Cui Bono?" Well the Russians, and not becuase they'll get to throw on taxes and fees and "wet the beak" a little. But you just can't move all this military stuff in a "diplo-pouch" (they don't make them that big) so that means as part of the "customs" inspections they'll get to poke around what ever we ship through Russia. Someone's probably going "hey dummy, we won't be shipping sensitive gear this way!" Yeah, got it, but you can still do alot of open source collecting this way. If this goes through, it'll be a field day for the GRU, FSB and SVR.

Touche, Ivan, touche!

Thanks to all the visitors

2009-04-02T08:09:00.000-07:00

Just wanted to drop a quick note to all of the visitors to this blog. I've now had visitors from up and down the east coast of the US, and today we went international with a visitor England. As the Russians say, "Spasiba"

Yay, we've got START, yay!!!

2009-04-01T17:22:00.001-07:00

M: Dude, seriously, Air Force 1 does mach 3?

O: Yeah, but don't tell anybody...*
*no, I don't know what they were talking about in this picture and no I don't know how fast Air Force 1 really goes so don't ask me. It's called google.com.

At least he didn't look deeply into Medvedev's eyes and proclaim that he could see that they were kindred spirits, although, both of them are lawyers...

This announcement from the presidents left me giddy at first, but then I sat around and thought about it some more and then got serious, dammit! (about getting a blog entry written). What wasn't said in the statement, and it may be too soon for this, but the Russians will demand some form of concession to get this done, what that might be is still in SWAG stage right now. If I did have to take a guess, it will involve at least a reduction or rethinking of our missle defense programs, a slowdown on former Warsaw Pact nations getting admitted to NATO, getting Saakashvili and Georgia tamped down, more control over the arctic, greater influence over the oil market, and help with their southern border to slow the Islamic creep through the southern stans. I suspect we'll have our own concessions of Russia, probably over getting pressure on Iran to come clean on their nuclear program and help with Afghanistan.

The other concern is the proposed time line. Between now and December seems like a lot of time, but between all the little working groups that will actually hammer this out, legislative issues (the Senate has got to ratify the damn thing) doesn't really leave alot time to fine comb what promises to be a pretty comprehensive document to make sure we've identified all the loopholes that the Russians will put in. I'm not saying their sneaky, that's just the nature of the way they do deals. I would think we would hopefully push the deadline back to give our negotiators enough time to work that document inside and out and up and down.

I'd slow this one down alot.

Spezwho? Spezwha?

2009-04-01T14:12:00.000-07:00

Well, rumors of the demise of the Spetnaz continue to bubble through the Russian media, from newsru.com:

"On the Heels of the Berdsk Special Forces, the GRU Brigade in Asbest Is Being Inactivated"

In Sverdlovsk Oblast the MoD of Russia GRU 12th Special Brigade, which has for many years been based in Asbest, will in the very near future be inactivated. This was announced, RIA Novyy Region reports, by the region's governor Eduard Rossel.

"The MoD has already decided on the formation in the location of the special forces' 12th Brigade in Asbest of an MVD rapid-response regiment. I offered use of this location for the deployment of this regiment," the region's leader told reporters.

We recall that units of the Main Intelligence Directorate are being inactivated as part of the reform of Russia's Armed Forces initiated by Defense Minister Anatoliy Serdyukov.

This follows on the heels of the deactivation of the Berdsk Brigade of the GRU last month. About the same time the Berdsk Brigade was deactivated, reports starting showing up in the Russian press about the establishment of a sort of special operations command for the Russian Military. When asked for comment on the establishment of such a command, Makarov replied with a characteristic "Nyet". So I would guess most of the officers and part of the soldiers from these deactivated GRU brigades will be the core of this new command. This is probably a deal that was cut between the GRU and Ministry of Defense to keep everybody happen for the "reforms". I think the whole SVR boogie man story of them swallowing all the other intelligence and security agencies to make some kindo of Frankenstein super intelligence agency is not true. The GRU is the GRU for a reason, to provide military intelligence, vice political intelligence that the KGB/SVR provides. We'll see some changes, but probably not much. Watch this space!

I wonder what the Russian ACUs will look like?

2009-03-30T17:13:00.000-07:00

The BBC had a good piece on the future of the Russian military as it moves from a Military District/Division based force to one that has an army that is a Brigade Centric organization that depends less on conscription, mobiliation of reservists and.... LESS OFFICERS! (always a good thing). Another good aspect is the professionalization of the NCO Corps with tighter selection standards and a education system to instill more knowledge. Yeah, kind of like us, as in US Army. BTW, check out the clip when they drop the reporter out of the 60 foot parchute tower and he literally breaks his ass, literally.

But I think the real indicator of military modernization is the introduction of, wait for it, socks. Huh, what?! Yeah, that's what I said too when I watched that clip, but I guess it's been a time honored tradition in the Russian Army to wrap your feet in hankies. Maybe that's what gave the Red Army the edge over the Wehrmacht in Stalingrad. You never know.

So what does it really all mean for those of us sitting west of the Urals? I think it means that first, we have to start working with Russia to get them back in compliance with the CFE obligations that they've been blowing off for the past couple of years. The last thing Europe needs is tanking economies and extra anxiety over keeping up with the Jonesviches in a potential new arms in Central Europe. I think it also means we've got a real good chance to practice some military to military diplomacy with the Russian Army. If they want to be like us, why not help them to be like us, help them along with developing their professional education system, to include inculcating their new Officer and NCO Corps with a healthy respect and desire for supporting democratic ideals. Maybe it'll bleed over to their civilian leaders, who knows.

Anywhoo, you've got to respect the 76th Airborne Division of the Russian Army, when the decide to take the old gear to Georgia so they can break it there and get the new stuff when they come home. ATW!

Dasvidania Rodina!

2009-03-28T15:49:00.000-07:00

I wonder if Sean Connery is free these days? Russia has always seen it's strategic nuclear forces as the bulwark against the encroaching west no matter what party line the regime in power is pushing. News of their latest class of submarine preparing for sea trials is probably evident of their efforts to retool their military, especially their strategic nuclear forces as part of Medvedev's arms spending spree coming up here shortly. The still have to get a working missile for the sub though.

At least the vodka keeps you warm...

2009-03-27T19:42:00.000-07:00

Well, the old bear is at it again. Russia as part of their pursuit of hydrocarbon security is now making noise about claiming more and more of the arctic as their own. Not too surprising as their latest National Security Strategy (which is still AWOL, the official version that is) specifies constant and secure access to hydrocarbons and believes in completely unfettered access to the Arctic. And they have no qualms with using military force to get to it. Rwaar! (h/t to Danger Room!)