Project Sapphire, the good old days

The early nineties were great. Your biggest concern was not bumping into an unmarked, left over minefield in the Former Republic of Yugoslavia, Russia and the US held joint manuevers, it was good times for all.

Meanwhile, in Kazakhstan, the US paid the Kazakh government 27 million dollars to take several hundred tons of highly enriched uranium off of its hands. David Hoffman, in the Washington Post, tells the story of a US counter proliferation project called Project Sapphire. While it's not George Clooney chasing a rogue nuclear bomber around the world, it does show how good policy can effectively keep nuclear genies in the bottle. Nuclear material has value to countries as either a source of energy, or a source of power to cow their neighbors or bring parity with another nuclear power in the region.

Our best policy in this region would be to keep encouraging Russian and Central Asian counter proliferation efforts both within their borders and in the region. The latest revelation about Iran's nuclear weapons efforts only make their cooperation more important. Sphere: Related Content

Shades of '91

Pavel Felgenhauer has reported on a Russian Army incursion into Moscow earlier this week. What is most disturbing about this incident is that is was a senior military officer who had chosen to use his own power to subvert what appeared to be a legal investigation into the mis-doings of his son-inlaw.

The sending of armed troops, unasked for by the Russian government, into Moscow does bring to light some serious command and control issues for both Medvedev and Putin. Felgenhauer rightly points out the implications for the Kremlin. This may result in Medvedev and Putin becoming prisoners in their own city unless Shamonov is crushed and made an example of.

Shumanov has also been a very vocal supporter of COL Budanov, a Russian Tank Regiment who was charged with and found guilty of the murder of a teenage Chechen girl during Russia's campaign there. The Budanov case has been an irritant for Moscow due to the constant attention brought to it by Anna Politkovskaya in her articles and books. While Putin has poo-poo'd her death, the reason she was killed can probably be tied back to her work on Chechnya, amongst other things. Shumanov unearthing Budanov in his defense probably does little to help him. Shumanov did serve in Chechnya.

While this does provide Moscow with an embarrasing and very thought provoking incident, their is a silver lining in all of this. Defense Minister Anatoliy Serdyukov has been leading the charge for Medvedyev's military reforms and professionalization of the military. His biggest obstacle so far has been the general officer corps, who see the changes as a threat to them and the Russian military officer corps as a whole. What better hammer to have to beat them into submission than that of a russian general officer using elite special troops to barge into Moscow for his own personal interests.

Use it wisely, well and often is the only advice I could give. Sphere: Related Content

Medvedev wants Chechen murders solved

The murders of human rights activists in Chechnya continues with latest two deaths, those of Zarema Sadulayeva and her husband, Alik Dzhabrailov earlier this week. Like the earlier deaths of Estimorova and Politkovskaya, they were people who were trying to show the rest of the world about the goings on in Russia and Chechnya.

Yesterday, President Medvedev announced that he wants Ramzan Kadyrov to work harder to solve these murders. While this may sound good and play well in the press, what power or force will Medvedev wield over Kadyrov to truly make this happen? Ramzan's ascent to power and his support from Putin (awarded the Hero of Russia and controller of reconstruction funds in Chechnya) makes it clear that Kadyrov understands he has carte blanche to control Chechnya as he sees fit to keep it from flaring up again. Kadyrov's statements on the murder of Estimorova only help to reinforce this view of him as Moscow's tough guy in the region.

Sarah Mendelson over at Foreign Policy has a great analysis on the situation in Chechnya these days, well worth the read. Sphere: Related Content

Was Ramzan Kadyrov complicit in the murder of Estemirova?

I was doing some reading this weekend and JRL had a good article on the murder of Estemirova last week. I have since learned that Estemirova was Chechen and had been critical of Kadyrov in her writings and publications, much like Anna Politkovskaya had been in Russia of Putin. In fact, they were friends with each other.

Here is the article by Roland Oliphant in the JRL. Oliphant poses a good question in this paragraph...

"Filling in the intervening hours will be the job of the investigators Russian President Dmitry Medvedev promptly ordered to the region. On Medvedev’s instruction Alexander Bastrykinu, the chief of the Investigative Committee of the Prosecutor General’s Office, arrived in the region on Thursday, will face some tough questions, and they are likely to lead to uncomfortable territory. How, for example, did the killers cross the border into Ingushetia, through a region where a massive “joint security operation” is meant to be going on to catch the insurgents who attacked Ingush President Yunnus Bek Yevkurov last month? Why were they not caught by President Ramzan Kadyrov’s supposedly all-powerful security forces? What was their motive, and whose orders were they acting on?"

The questions that Oliphant poses really lead the reader to one of two conclusions. The first is that the Border Guards are running a less than competent security program in Ingushetia if something like this occurred. The second conclusion would be that the there was some complicity on the behalf of Moscow in the murder of Estemirova. The Border Guards are a subordinate agency of the FSB, Putin's old agency. One wonders if Kadyrov maybe didn't ask for some help from Moscow in disposing of Estemirova? A somewhat tenious thread, I know, but not too unbelievable given what happens in Russia lately.

Sphere: Related Content

Human Rights Activist Kidnapped and Murdered in Chechnya

This just came across the news on BBC. According to the article Natalia Estemirova, a Russian Human Rights activist was kidnapped and murdered. Estimirova had worked with Anna Politkovskaya in the past on documenting abuses in the Soviet Union, especially in Chechnya. While this could have just been another criminal act by Chechyan thugs, the parralels between Estimirova and Politkovskya are simply to strong to ignore.


If you haven't had the opportunity to read Politkovskaya's book "Putin's Russia", please do take the time to pick it up and read it. Politkovskaya literally paid with her life for her work to expose what was happening in Russia under Putin and how Chechnya was being used as a ruse to distract the Russian public from the stripping away of their rights. Politkovskaya was murdered October 6, 2006 in her apartment complex in Moscow. Ironically, October 6th is also the birthday of Vladimir Putin, target of many of her investigative reports. Her case still remains unresolved.

The murder of Estimirova will be a test case for Medvedev. As a, lawyer he has committed to a Russian government that is transparent and dedicated to the rule of law. If it appears that Russia's security services are indeeed involved with the kidnapping and murder of Estemirova, Medvedev will have to show that his true independence as a president and seek to have these offenders prosecuted, and not be just another Putin crony. Sphere: Related Content

Russian Helicopters For The Iraqi Air Force!! ehhh... not so much

Sharon Weinberg over at Danger Room! has been doing a bang up job detailing the arms sale that never really happened. This is one of a few cases here in DC where a contractor who has no previous experience in a certain area suddenly jumps in with the lowest bid and proceeds to screw the whole process up. A few years back everybody kind of scratched their head with the awarding of a contract to the L3 corp to build a replacement for the venerable Sherpa cargo aircraft flown by the Army. If you had worked with L3 in the past, they were mainly known for developing computer systems for the department of defense. The company that Sharon writes about in this article is ARINC, who mainly advertise their IT and communications solutions here in the beltway. I really didn't see too much on their website about military helicopter fleet purchases. But bottom line, the USG paid an S***load of money for the helicopters to a Russian firm and still really has nothing to show so far. I'm curious to see how this one plays out. Sphere: Related Content

I wonder what the Russian ACUs will look like?

The BBC had a good piece on the future of the Russian military as it moves from a Military District/Division based force to one that has an army that is a Brigade Centric organization that depends less on conscription, mobiliation of reservists and.... LESS OFFICERS! (always a good thing). Another good aspect is the professionalization of the NCO Corps with tighter selection standards and a education system to instill more knowledge. Yeah, kind of like us, as in US Army. BTW, check out the clip when they drop the reporter out of the 60 foot parchute tower and he literally breaks his ass, literally.

But I think the real indicator of military modernization is the introduction of, wait for it, socks. Huh, what?! Yeah, that's what I said too when I watched that clip, but I guess it's been a time honored tradition in the Russian Army to wrap your feet in hankies. Maybe that's what gave the Red Army the edge over the Wehrmacht in Stalingrad. You never know.

So what does it really all mean for those of us sitting west of the Urals? I think it means that first, we have to start working with Russia to get them back in compliance with the CFE obligations that they've been blowing off for the past couple of years. The last thing Europe needs is tanking economies and extra anxiety over keeping up with the Jonesviches in a potential new arms in Central Europe. I think it also means we've got a real good chance to practice some military to military diplomacy with the Russian Army. If they want to be like us, why not help them to be like us, help them along with developing their professional education system, to include inculcating their new Officer and NCO Corps with a healthy respect and desire for supporting democratic ideals. Maybe it'll bleed over to their civilian leaders, who knows.

Anywhoo, you've got to respect the 76th Airborne Division of the Russian Army, when the decide to take the old gear to Georgia so they can break it there and get the new stuff when they come home. ATW! Sphere: Related Content