Reflections on the Soviet Experience in Afghanistan

Two articles have caught my attention over the past few days in relation to the Red Army in Afghanistan. The first one comes from Danger Room as a crosspost from russian navy blog. It's an old Red Army document given to soldiers to better understand the Afghan culture in an attempt to keep the soldiers from crossing cultural lines. It comes across as pretty well thought out and seems similiar to another document that the US Army put out in WWII for US soldiers operating in Iraq.

The second was a Radio Free Europe news story via Dave Johnson's Reading List (awesome reading list BTW!!) that looks back at the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan 30 years ago. While the article is generally good in its arguments, one part stands out. Gregory Feifer, the author makes a somewhat flawed conclusion at the end of the article, italics added:

"Vostrotin and other veterans predict that the United States is doomed to the same fate the Soviet forces met in Afghanistan. But despite their obvious similarities, the conflicts differ in fundamental ways. U.S. and NATO fighting forces are far better trained and equipped, and Afghans still support the international drive to establish a viable Afghan state."

One could make the argument that the soviets were better trained and equipped with the latest in Soviet Army technology, or similarly about the US Army in Vietnam. At the end of the day, take a look at who was left standing in each country. Or better yet, recall the conversation between a US negotiator and his North Vietnamese counterpart at the end of the Vietnam War where the US Officer, in an attempt to salvage some pride tells the other officer that the US Army never lost a battle in Vietnam. The Vietnamese officer ponders the statement for a second and then tells the American that while true, it was the American, that was standing there suing for peace.

Though I wouldn't quite go along with the narrative that the US is doomed to failure in Afghanistan simply due to the past history of foreign armies in Afghanistan, it would be well served to have a complete grasp of history in Afghanistan and realize when its pitching down well down roads, as Feifer shows in his article. Sphere: Related Content

Project Sapphire, the good old days

The early nineties were great. Your biggest concern was not bumping into an unmarked, left over minefield in the Former Republic of Yugoslavia, Russia and the US held joint manuevers, it was good times for all.

Meanwhile, in Kazakhstan, the US paid the Kazakh government 27 million dollars to take several hundred tons of highly enriched uranium off of its hands. David Hoffman, in the Washington Post, tells the story of a US counter proliferation project called Project Sapphire. While it's not George Clooney chasing a rogue nuclear bomber around the world, it does show how good policy can effectively keep nuclear genies in the bottle. Nuclear material has value to countries as either a source of energy, or a source of power to cow their neighbors or bring parity with another nuclear power in the region.

Our best policy in this region would be to keep encouraging Russian and Central Asian counter proliferation efforts both within their borders and in the region. The latest revelation about Iran's nuclear weapons efforts only make their cooperation more important. Sphere: Related Content

Shades of '91

Pavel Felgenhauer has reported on a Russian Army incursion into Moscow earlier this week. What is most disturbing about this incident is that is was a senior military officer who had chosen to use his own power to subvert what appeared to be a legal investigation into the mis-doings of his son-inlaw.

The sending of armed troops, unasked for by the Russian government, into Moscow does bring to light some serious command and control issues for both Medvedev and Putin. Felgenhauer rightly points out the implications for the Kremlin. This may result in Medvedev and Putin becoming prisoners in their own city unless Shamonov is crushed and made an example of.

Shumanov has also been a very vocal supporter of COL Budanov, a Russian Tank Regiment who was charged with and found guilty of the murder of a teenage Chechen girl during Russia's campaign there. The Budanov case has been an irritant for Moscow due to the constant attention brought to it by Anna Politkovskaya in her articles and books. While Putin has poo-poo'd her death, the reason she was killed can probably be tied back to her work on Chechnya, amongst other things. Shumanov unearthing Budanov in his defense probably does little to help him. Shumanov did serve in Chechnya.

While this does provide Moscow with an embarrasing and very thought provoking incident, their is a silver lining in all of this. Defense Minister Anatoliy Serdyukov has been leading the charge for Medvedyev's military reforms and professionalization of the military. His biggest obstacle so far has been the general officer corps, who see the changes as a threat to them and the Russian military officer corps as a whole. What better hammer to have to beat them into submission than that of a russian general officer using elite special troops to barge into Moscow for his own personal interests.

Use it wisely, well and often is the only advice I could give. Sphere: Related Content

Pulling the plug on missle defense in Eastern Europe

At the end of the week, President Obama announced that he is changing America's concept for missle defense in regards to countering Iran's future nuclear ballistic missile capabilities. Previously, the US had planned to counter Iranian missiles through a series of radars and interceptors stationed in Europe. This obviously has been an irritant to Moscow since it was announced. Since the end of the cold war, and even prior to it, Moscow has considered it's strategic nuclear capability as an answer to what it percieved as NATOs and the US military edge. It believes that what keeps Russia safe at night is it's strategic nuclear forces.

If we were still looking to fight a nuclear WWIII, that line of thought would hold some water, but Russia, through its recent military history, and it's observation of recent US military history, I think has seen that it can no longer think that way. Statements by Medvedev over this past year have shown that the political leadership want to break that old way of thinking. Russia now wants a military that is professional, flexible and agile. He needs a force that can quickly move to trouble spots and get control before the violence spreads. Medvedev knows that the threats that Russia faces will be along and inside its border and nuclear weapons will do nothing to solve them.

Consider this also. Russia has a strong concern about the part of the Near Abroad that encompasses the caucuses and the central asia. This part of the near abroad have invasion routes in the past into Russia and also now host a growing muslim population that chafes under Moscow's rule and influence. With our withdrawal from a robust and very public missile defense program in eastern europe to a more low key program, it may put the onus on Russia to become more involved in counter proliferation in the area. Why? For one thing, having a nuclear armed Iran in the vicinity of it's near abroad runs counter to its own national security. Secondly, Russia has been a major provider of military equipment to Iran. By this virtue of arms sales that Iran really needs, Russia has a greater stick and carrot effect than we could hope for. Thirdly, Russia and Iran have much in common, government wise. Both countries are "managed democracies". They both hold open and democratic elections (for the most part), but the powers that be, whether it be the Siloviki/United Russia Party or the Revolutionary Council and Supreme Leader maintain a very strong sway over the government and its actions. As we see in international relations, similar countries tend to associate, cooperate, build concensus and create coaltions with like countries. That is why it is possible that Russia would also have more of an influence over Iran than we could hope to have in the near future.

So in the end, I believe that this is a shrewd move by the Obama administration which opens doors for Russia to contribute more positively to the global community in terms of counter proliferation. But what does Putin think... Sphere: Related Content

New HMFIC for the Training of the Russian Military

Russia has placed a new general officer in charge of the training of the Russian military. Some information on Lieutenant General Valery Yevnevich does exist out there. According to Jamestown, Yevnevich spent almost seven years in Moldova overseeing the Russian peacekeeping operation in that area. The big cesspool of Moldova is the Transistria region that has become a center of crime. Anything from human trafficking to drugs and weapons smuggling, it's an A-Z of crime.

What's intersting to note is that Yevnevich replaced Alexander Lebed, who was apparently recalled due to pressure from mob leadership in the area. Yevnevich, though, was able to overcome the political strength of the criminals in Transistria and pretty much defang them and remove and destroy just about all of the military material that had been passed to them over the years. Yevnevich appears to be a true professional officer dedicated to the success of the Russian military. One has to wonder if he'll work to professionalize the military and develop it into a factor of democratic strength in Russia, or will he work to strengthen Russia as a threat to the region? Time will tell, but I'll hope for the former. Sphere: Related Content

Straight F'ing Insane

From the boys over at Danger Room. A Russian fighter pilot was paid to eject from an SU-35 jet for a movie. Link and pic below.



http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2009/07/picture-this-crazy-ivan-hits-eject/ Sphere: Related Content

Human Rights Activist Kidnapped and Murdered in Chechnya

This just came across the news on BBC. According to the article Natalia Estemirova, a Russian Human Rights activist was kidnapped and murdered. Estimirova had worked with Anna Politkovskaya in the past on documenting abuses in the Soviet Union, especially in Chechnya. While this could have just been another criminal act by Chechyan thugs, the parralels between Estimirova and Politkovskya are simply to strong to ignore.


If you haven't had the opportunity to read Politkovskaya's book "Putin's Russia", please do take the time to pick it up and read it. Politkovskaya literally paid with her life for her work to expose what was happening in Russia under Putin and how Chechnya was being used as a ruse to distract the Russian public from the stripping away of their rights. Politkovskaya was murdered October 6, 2006 in her apartment complex in Moscow. Ironically, October 6th is also the birthday of Vladimir Putin, target of many of her investigative reports. Her case still remains unresolved.

The murder of Estimirova will be a test case for Medvedev. As a, lawyer he has committed to a Russian government that is transparent and dedicated to the rule of law. If it appears that Russia's security services are indeeed involved with the kidnapping and murder of Estemirova, Medvedev will have to show that his true independence as a president and seek to have these offenders prosecuted, and not be just another Putin crony. Sphere: Related Content

CFE, maybe?

Yahoo news is reporting today that the Russians maybe willing to re-ratify the stalled Convential Forces Europe treaty. But Russia has apparently imposed some of its own conditions before it is willing to sign on. One is the lifting of the restrictions that limit its ability to move forces within Russia itself without notifying NATO.

So why would Russia now want to ratify the treaty with new conditions lifted by itself. It might be due to some of the results from the latest NATO exercise in Georgia. Amongst the participants were several former Russian Republics who later pulled out of the exercise. If I had to speculate as to why they pulled out, I would guess Russian pressure. If Russia now gains the ability to move its forces in Russia with little say from the west, they now gain the ability to use that lever of national power more freely against countries of the near abroad that may be taking what they thought was sovereign activity, but frustrates or upsets Moscow. I would guess having a Russian Armor Brigade show up at your border one morning becuase Moscow was upset with you might be considered a game changer.
Thanks to the Perry Castaneda online map collection! Sphere: Related Content

Russian Helicopters For The Iraqi Air Force!! ehhh... not so much

Sharon Weinberg over at Danger Room! has been doing a bang up job detailing the arms sale that never really happened. This is one of a few cases here in DC where a contractor who has no previous experience in a certain area suddenly jumps in with the lowest bid and proceeds to screw the whole process up. A few years back everybody kind of scratched their head with the awarding of a contract to the L3 corp to build a replacement for the venerable Sherpa cargo aircraft flown by the Army. If you had worked with L3 in the past, they were mainly known for developing computer systems for the department of defense. The company that Sharon writes about in this article is ARINC, who mainly advertise their IT and communications solutions here in the beltway. I really didn't see too much on their website about military helicopter fleet purchases. But bottom line, the USG paid an S***load of money for the helicopters to a Russian firm and still really has nothing to show so far. I'm curious to see how this one plays out. Sphere: Related Content

Take off, 'eh, we were here first you hosers!

Ahh, new week, new blog entry. Git 'er done!
Tuesday also heralds the arrival of Defense News in my mail box and below the fold they're carrying a story on how Russia and Canada are posturing themselves militarily to secure parts, or all of the Arctic for themselves or allies. For those of you not getting the defense news, ta-da! The latest Russian National Security Strategy (still AWOL by the way) drafts floating around the net do claim the Arctic as key to Russia's national security. Russian Security Council HMFIC Nikolai Patrushev wrote in the Rossiiskaya Gazeta on March 30th that:

"The United States of America, Norway, Denmark and Canada are conducting a united and coordinated policy of barring Russia from the riches of the shelf," Patrushev wrote in the March 30 issue of the government's Rossiiskaya Gazeta newspaper. "It is quite obvious that much of this doesn't coincide with economic, geopolitical and defense interests of Russia, and constitutes a systemic threat to its national security."

Glad to see Nikolai keeping the traditional russian paranoia going. Of course this forced Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Lawrence Cannon to put down his Molson's and reply that Canada "will not be bullied"

Both sides have announced plans to build or refurbish naval and ground bases and establish some form of permanent or semi-permanent force in the region. I don't expect either side will be placing too large of a force up there for the simple reason that although global warming is proving wildly successful these past few decades, the Arctic is still a nasty place with winter temps in the very low negative double digits and a very short summer to conduct extended training. Logisticially, it's difficult to sustain troops in the field due to the need to transport huge amounts of fuel, food and other supplies simply to keep them alive. Basically, very little gets done over a whole lot of time.

The Canadians, for their part are maintaining a steadily growing defense budget, averaging a sustained 2% growth rate in defense spending through 2031. The latest defense (or defence) philosophy for the Canadians is that want to focus more on homeland security threats, and I'll bet this latest move by Russia has really focused their attention.

So while it will take a very long time to thaw out the Arctic, the trigger for any future build up (probably by the Russians first) will the be discovery of any new significantly large oil fields/reserves in the Arctic. Once that happens, it'll be like a good old fashioned hockey fight! If it does, I'll be rooting for Doug and Bob McKenzie, eh.
Sphere: Related Content

Yay, we've got START, yay!!!

M: Dude, seriously, Air Force 1 does mach 3?

O: Yeah, but don't tell anybody...*
*no, I don't know what they were talking about in this picture and no I don't know how fast Air Force 1 really goes so don't ask me. It's called google.com.



At least he didn't look deeply into Medvedev's eyes and proclaim that he could see that they were kindred spirits, although, both of them are lawyers...

This announcement from the presidents left me giddy at first, but then I sat around and thought about it some more and then got serious, dammit! (about getting a blog entry written). What wasn't said in the statement, and it may be too soon for this, but the Russians will demand some form of concession to get this done, what that might be is still in SWAG stage right now. If I did have to take a guess, it will involve at least a reduction or rethinking of our missle defense programs, a slowdown on former Warsaw Pact nations getting admitted to NATO, getting Saakashvili and Georgia tamped down, more control over the arctic, greater influence over the oil market, and help with their southern border to slow the Islamic creep through the southern stans. I suspect we'll have our own concessions of Russia, probably over getting pressure on Iran to come clean on their nuclear program and help with Afghanistan.

The other concern is the proposed time line. Between now and December seems like a lot of time, but between all the little working groups that will actually hammer this out, legislative issues (the Senate has got to ratify the damn thing) doesn't really leave alot time to fine comb what promises to be a pretty comprehensive document to make sure we've identified all the loopholes that the Russians will put in. I'm not saying their sneaky, that's just the nature of the way they do deals. I would think we would hopefully push the deadline back to give our negotiators enough time to work that document inside and out and up and down.

I'd slow this one down alot.


Sphere: Related Content

I wonder what the Russian ACUs will look like?

The BBC had a good piece on the future of the Russian military as it moves from a Military District/Division based force to one that has an army that is a Brigade Centric organization that depends less on conscription, mobiliation of reservists and.... LESS OFFICERS! (always a good thing). Another good aspect is the professionalization of the NCO Corps with tighter selection standards and a education system to instill more knowledge. Yeah, kind of like us, as in US Army. BTW, check out the clip when they drop the reporter out of the 60 foot parchute tower and he literally breaks his ass, literally.

But I think the real indicator of military modernization is the introduction of, wait for it, socks. Huh, what?! Yeah, that's what I said too when I watched that clip, but I guess it's been a time honored tradition in the Russian Army to wrap your feet in hankies. Maybe that's what gave the Red Army the edge over the Wehrmacht in Stalingrad. You never know.

So what does it really all mean for those of us sitting west of the Urals? I think it means that first, we have to start working with Russia to get them back in compliance with the CFE obligations that they've been blowing off for the past couple of years. The last thing Europe needs is tanking economies and extra anxiety over keeping up with the Jonesviches in a potential new arms in Central Europe. I think it also means we've got a real good chance to practice some military to military diplomacy with the Russian Army. If they want to be like us, why not help them to be like us, help them along with developing their professional education system, to include inculcating their new Officer and NCO Corps with a healthy respect and desire for supporting democratic ideals. Maybe it'll bleed over to their civilian leaders, who knows.

Anywhoo, you've got to respect the 76th Airborne Division of the Russian Army, when the decide to take the old gear to Georgia so they can break it there and get the new stuff when they come home. ATW! Sphere: Related Content

At least the vodka keeps you warm...

Well, the old bear is at it again. Russia as part of their pursuit of hydrocarbon security is now making noise about claiming more and more of the arctic as their own. Not too surprising as their latest National Security Strategy (which is still AWOL, the official version that is) specifies constant and secure access to hydrocarbons and believes in completely unfettered access to the Arctic. And they have no qualms with using military force to get to it. Rwaar! (h/t to Danger Room!) Sphere: Related Content