GRU shakeup

If you haven't seen it already, GEN Korabelnikov, Chief of the GRU, was formally "sacked", as the brits put it, over the weekend. I'm still sorting through the echo chamber, but it looks like a deputy, GEN Shlyakturov has been called out of the bullpen to take over at the head of the GRU. More to follow as I sort this one out. Sphere: Related Content

OU812!

Yeah, looks like we're not the only ones rethinking the purchase of a crazy expensive jet fighter that nobody can really explain the need for.

Fighters such as the F35 JSF, F22 Raptor or Sukhoi PAK FA are known as 5th generation fighters. While they look neat and sexy, the concept of these fighters was developed during the cold war or at the end of it when the only real enemy either side have known was other guy staring at them from the other end of the Fulda Gap. Since the end of the cold war, both the US and Russia have been involved the in the small brutish little wars that have seen fit to thaw out such as Bosnia, Kosovo, Chechnya, Afghanistan, Georgia where the need for an air to air superiority jet fighter really hasn't been needed to the extent they were envisioned.

So what both us and the Russians end up with is a 20-30 year old concept fighter that neither side has even yet to field in numbers that really matter.

Take a look at also how each side views the future world. The US sees that we've left the cold war days behind and face a world where the tools of the cold war may not be the best to keep in the tool box. The US sees that the world it faces presents the complex problems found in irregular warfare and it has to be prepared to meet those challenges. The Russians have their own view point, rightly so. They see energy and energy access as key to their national security (BTW, has anybody seen their latest national security strategy, it's late!!). They've stated that they will take the neccessary measures to keep that access open, and that apparently requires new equipment that is geared towards convential combat. If that's the case, then that means good old fashioned fightin!



Honestly, I'm not sure either the US or Russia has got this one completely figured out, but not buying the 5th generation fighters is probably the best for all, it's just a waste of money better spent elsewhere like joint training exercises! Sphere: Related Content

Grad Students

This kind of says it all. Serious Russia stuff later this week, I had to clear out the rest of my mid terms.

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Thanks to redbannernorthernfleet for this little gem.

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Take off, 'eh, we were here first you hosers!

Ahh, new week, new blog entry. Git 'er done!
Tuesday also heralds the arrival of Defense News in my mail box and below the fold they're carrying a story on how Russia and Canada are posturing themselves militarily to secure parts, or all of the Arctic for themselves or allies. For those of you not getting the defense news, ta-da! The latest Russian National Security Strategy (still AWOL by the way) drafts floating around the net do claim the Arctic as key to Russia's national security. Russian Security Council HMFIC Nikolai Patrushev wrote in the Rossiiskaya Gazeta on March 30th that:

"The United States of America, Norway, Denmark and Canada are conducting a united and coordinated policy of barring Russia from the riches of the shelf," Patrushev wrote in the March 30 issue of the government's Rossiiskaya Gazeta newspaper. "It is quite obvious that much of this doesn't coincide with economic, geopolitical and defense interests of Russia, and constitutes a systemic threat to its national security."

Glad to see Nikolai keeping the traditional russian paranoia going. Of course this forced Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Lawrence Cannon to put down his Molson's and reply that Canada "will not be bullied"

Both sides have announced plans to build or refurbish naval and ground bases and establish some form of permanent or semi-permanent force in the region. I don't expect either side will be placing too large of a force up there for the simple reason that although global warming is proving wildly successful these past few decades, the Arctic is still a nasty place with winter temps in the very low negative double digits and a very short summer to conduct extended training. Logisticially, it's difficult to sustain troops in the field due to the need to transport huge amounts of fuel, food and other supplies simply to keep them alive. Basically, very little gets done over a whole lot of time.

The Canadians, for their part are maintaining a steadily growing defense budget, averaging a sustained 2% growth rate in defense spending through 2031. The latest defense (or defence) philosophy for the Canadians is that want to focus more on homeland security threats, and I'll bet this latest move by Russia has really focused their attention.

So while it will take a very long time to thaw out the Arctic, the trigger for any future build up (probably by the Russians first) will the be discovery of any new significantly large oil fields/reserves in the Arctic. Once that happens, it'll be like a good old fashioned hockey fight! If it does, I'll be rooting for Doug and Bob McKenzie, eh.
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Da comrade, ve can play very good shakhmaty!

I'll hand it to the russians, they know how to play shakhmaty (chess) very well. Back in Feb 2009, Russia offered the Kyrgzygs (dammit people, it's called vowels!) some 2.15 Billion dollars in "aid" in exchange for shutting down Manas Air Base in Kyrgzygstan. For the uninitiated, Manas was (still is??) our major airfield for flying stuff into A-Stan. Its capable of handling about four C17s or C5 cargo aircraft, so it was kind of important to us, and we had kind of sunk a s--t load of money into developing the place.

Now, the Russian are playing nice-nice, but this latest move is not unexpected. Somebody, somewhere reading this blog post just went "pfft, whatever dude, we can fly the stuff in from somewhere else" Eh, not quite. Not Uzbekistan, since the Russians did the same thing to us in 2005 with the K2 airbase. Can't go to Tajikistan since the Indians have already built up the airbase at Farkhor and us shacking up with Indians in Tajikistan would just piss off our allies in the Afghan war, the Pakistani's to no end.

Turkmenistan has maintained a policy of neutrality, so a big fat nyet from them. As for Kazakhstan, yes they have airfields we could have used, but after the Russians and the Chinese, especially the Chinese bitched and moaned about an American base, that one died off to. Also keep in mind that Kazakhstan has a major oil pipeline into China ($$ bitches!) and is building a similar natural gas one into China ($$ bitches!) probably a few implied threats about these projects brought the Kazaks into line ricky ticky.

You also just can't fly stuff into A-Stan from Europe or where ever. You actually have to pile the goods somewhat close to the theater so you can quickly organize pallets of items that are in demand and get them on the next cargo plane smokin'. Its alot more efficent logistically and gives the loggies more flexibility in terms of buidling these pallets and gets the stuff into the hands of the people who need it quicker.

So, as the Romans would say, "Cui Bono?" Well the Russians, and not becuase they'll get to throw on taxes and fees and "wet the beak" a little. But you just can't move all this military stuff in a "diplo-pouch" (they don't make them that big) so that means as part of the "customs" inspections they'll get to poke around what ever we ship through Russia. Someone's probably going "hey dummy, we won't be shipping sensitive gear this way!" Yeah, got it, but you can still do alot of open source collecting this way. If this goes through, it'll be a field day for the GRU, FSB and SVR.

Touche, Ivan, touche! Sphere: Related Content

Thanks to all the visitors

Just wanted to drop a quick note to all of the visitors to this blog. I've now had visitors from up and down the east coast of the US, and today we went international with a visitor England. As the Russians say, "Spasiba" Sphere: Related Content

Yay, we've got START, yay!!!

M: Dude, seriously, Air Force 1 does mach 3?

O: Yeah, but don't tell anybody...*
*no, I don't know what they were talking about in this picture and no I don't know how fast Air Force 1 really goes so don't ask me. It's called google.com.



At least he didn't look deeply into Medvedev's eyes and proclaim that he could see that they were kindred spirits, although, both of them are lawyers...

This announcement from the presidents left me giddy at first, but then I sat around and thought about it some more and then got serious, dammit! (about getting a blog entry written). What wasn't said in the statement, and it may be too soon for this, but the Russians will demand some form of concession to get this done, what that might be is still in SWAG stage right now. If I did have to take a guess, it will involve at least a reduction or rethinking of our missle defense programs, a slowdown on former Warsaw Pact nations getting admitted to NATO, getting Saakashvili and Georgia tamped down, more control over the arctic, greater influence over the oil market, and help with their southern border to slow the Islamic creep through the southern stans. I suspect we'll have our own concessions of Russia, probably over getting pressure on Iran to come clean on their nuclear program and help with Afghanistan.

The other concern is the proposed time line. Between now and December seems like a lot of time, but between all the little working groups that will actually hammer this out, legislative issues (the Senate has got to ratify the damn thing) doesn't really leave alot time to fine comb what promises to be a pretty comprehensive document to make sure we've identified all the loopholes that the Russians will put in. I'm not saying their sneaky, that's just the nature of the way they do deals. I would think we would hopefully push the deadline back to give our negotiators enough time to work that document inside and out and up and down.

I'd slow this one down alot.


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Spezwho? Spezwha?

Well, rumors of the demise of the Spetnaz continue to bubble through the Russian media, from newsru.com:

"On the Heels of the Berdsk Special Forces, the GRU Brigade in Asbest Is Being Inactivated"

In Sverdlovsk Oblast the MoD of Russia GRU 12th Special Brigade, which has for many years been based in Asbest, will in the very near future be inactivated. This was announced, RIA Novyy Region reports, by the region's governor Eduard Rossel.

"The MoD has already decided on the formation in the location of the special forces' 12th Brigade in Asbest of an MVD rapid-response regiment. I offered use of this location for the deployment of this regiment," the region's leader told reporters.

We recall that units of the Main Intelligence Directorate are being inactivated as part of the reform of Russia's Armed Forces initiated by Defense Minister Anatoliy Serdyukov.

This follows on the heels of the deactivation of the Berdsk Brigade of the GRU last month. About the same time the Berdsk Brigade was deactivated, reports starting showing up in the Russian press about the establishment of a sort of special operations command for the Russian Military. When asked for comment on the establishment of such a command, Makarov replied with a characteristic "Nyet". So I would guess most of the officers and part of the soldiers from these deactivated GRU brigades will be the core of this new command. This is probably a deal that was cut between the GRU and Ministry of Defense to keep everybody happen for the "reforms". I think the whole SVR boogie man story of them swallowing all the other intelligence and security agencies to make some kindo of Frankenstein super intelligence agency is not true. The GRU is the GRU for a reason, to provide military intelligence, vice political intelligence that the KGB/SVR provides. We'll see some changes, but probably not much. Watch this space! Sphere: Related Content