Wow, vodka cures anything...

From Danger Room this morning. Apparently vodka helps cure you of radiation poisoning. Whoda thunk? Sphere: Related Content

Project Sapphire, the good old days

The early nineties were great. Your biggest concern was not bumping into an unmarked, left over minefield in the Former Republic of Yugoslavia, Russia and the US held joint manuevers, it was good times for all.

Meanwhile, in Kazakhstan, the US paid the Kazakh government 27 million dollars to take several hundred tons of highly enriched uranium off of its hands. David Hoffman, in the Washington Post, tells the story of a US counter proliferation project called Project Sapphire. While it's not George Clooney chasing a rogue nuclear bomber around the world, it does show how good policy can effectively keep nuclear genies in the bottle. Nuclear material has value to countries as either a source of energy, or a source of power to cow their neighbors or bring parity with another nuclear power in the region.

Our best policy in this region would be to keep encouraging Russian and Central Asian counter proliferation efforts both within their borders and in the region. The latest revelation about Iran's nuclear weapons efforts only make their cooperation more important. Sphere: Related Content

Shades of '91

Pavel Felgenhauer has reported on a Russian Army incursion into Moscow earlier this week. What is most disturbing about this incident is that is was a senior military officer who had chosen to use his own power to subvert what appeared to be a legal investigation into the mis-doings of his son-inlaw.

The sending of armed troops, unasked for by the Russian government, into Moscow does bring to light some serious command and control issues for both Medvedev and Putin. Felgenhauer rightly points out the implications for the Kremlin. This may result in Medvedev and Putin becoming prisoners in their own city unless Shamonov is crushed and made an example of.

Shumanov has also been a very vocal supporter of COL Budanov, a Russian Tank Regiment who was charged with and found guilty of the murder of a teenage Chechen girl during Russia's campaign there. The Budanov case has been an irritant for Moscow due to the constant attention brought to it by Anna Politkovskaya in her articles and books. While Putin has poo-poo'd her death, the reason she was killed can probably be tied back to her work on Chechnya, amongst other things. Shumanov unearthing Budanov in his defense probably does little to help him. Shumanov did serve in Chechnya.

While this does provide Moscow with an embarrasing and very thought provoking incident, their is a silver lining in all of this. Defense Minister Anatoliy Serdyukov has been leading the charge for Medvedyev's military reforms and professionalization of the military. His biggest obstacle so far has been the general officer corps, who see the changes as a threat to them and the Russian military officer corps as a whole. What better hammer to have to beat them into submission than that of a russian general officer using elite special troops to barge into Moscow for his own personal interests.

Use it wisely, well and often is the only advice I could give. Sphere: Related Content

Pulling the plug on missle defense in Eastern Europe

At the end of the week, President Obama announced that he is changing America's concept for missle defense in regards to countering Iran's future nuclear ballistic missile capabilities. Previously, the US had planned to counter Iranian missiles through a series of radars and interceptors stationed in Europe. This obviously has been an irritant to Moscow since it was announced. Since the end of the cold war, and even prior to it, Moscow has considered it's strategic nuclear capability as an answer to what it percieved as NATOs and the US military edge. It believes that what keeps Russia safe at night is it's strategic nuclear forces.

If we were still looking to fight a nuclear WWIII, that line of thought would hold some water, but Russia, through its recent military history, and it's observation of recent US military history, I think has seen that it can no longer think that way. Statements by Medvedev over this past year have shown that the political leadership want to break that old way of thinking. Russia now wants a military that is professional, flexible and agile. He needs a force that can quickly move to trouble spots and get control before the violence spreads. Medvedev knows that the threats that Russia faces will be along and inside its border and nuclear weapons will do nothing to solve them.

Consider this also. Russia has a strong concern about the part of the Near Abroad that encompasses the caucuses and the central asia. This part of the near abroad have invasion routes in the past into Russia and also now host a growing muslim population that chafes under Moscow's rule and influence. With our withdrawal from a robust and very public missile defense program in eastern europe to a more low key program, it may put the onus on Russia to become more involved in counter proliferation in the area. Why? For one thing, having a nuclear armed Iran in the vicinity of it's near abroad runs counter to its own national security. Secondly, Russia has been a major provider of military equipment to Iran. By this virtue of arms sales that Iran really needs, Russia has a greater stick and carrot effect than we could hope for. Thirdly, Russia and Iran have much in common, government wise. Both countries are "managed democracies". They both hold open and democratic elections (for the most part), but the powers that be, whether it be the Siloviki/United Russia Party or the Revolutionary Council and Supreme Leader maintain a very strong sway over the government and its actions. As we see in international relations, similar countries tend to associate, cooperate, build concensus and create coaltions with like countries. That is why it is possible that Russia would also have more of an influence over Iran than we could hope to have in the near future.

So in the end, I believe that this is a shrewd move by the Obama administration which opens doors for Russia to contribute more positively to the global community in terms of counter proliferation. But what does Putin think... Sphere: Related Content

Color Photos of Russian Life

Newsweek on line has a breathtaking series of color photographs of russian life posted on line. The photos span a period from the 1900s to just before the revolution in 1917. I found two amazing things about the series. The first is how well the colors are captured in the photography. You get a sense that you are actually there looking at the subject with your own eyes, rather than through a medium. Take a look at picture 22, "The Emir of Bukhara" and see how the colors of his robes jump out at you. The second is how well the photos have been preserved. Many of these photographs have survived well over a century. Truly a treat for the eyes. Sphere: Related Content

A review of 1612

I finished watching the movie 1612 last week and thought I would share my thoughts on the movie. The movie covers a period of Russian history when a series of foreign monarchs laid claim to the russian throne and Russia experienced a period of "The Troubles". The movie is told through several viewpoints, to include the supposed Tsarina, Princess Kseniya Godunova; her Polish backers, Prince Pozharsky who is leading a peoples army to restore a russian to the throne, and a young russian serf who was in the employ of the royal family at the time it was overthrown and now seeks to help restore the Princess to the throne, and a Roman Catholic cleric who has been seconded from Rome to help advise the princess.

The movie itself runs a little over two hours so I won't go too far into the plot. I will say that the movie does explore some traditional russian themes in the context of history. One of the first ones that you will catch on is the importance of the Russian Orthodox faith to Russians. It plays heavily in several scenes and plays a role in the concluding scenes of the movie. It also compares the strength of the Orthodox faith to that of the Catholic faith. The Catholic prelate finds his faith lacking in the movie and after a meeting with a Russian monk, who is also a mystic, realizes that the logic and apologetics that are so important to Western Christianity/Catholicism pale to the deep faith and mysticism embodied by the Russian monk who has spent the entire period of the troubles standing in a tree wearing a heavy iron cross, as a sacrifice to God and will continue to do until the troubles end. The Catholic prelate in the end, takes the monks advice and leaves on is own spiritual journey, growing out his hair and beard as the Russian priests do. While the director chooses to show the importance of the Orthodox faith to the Russians at that time, it is important to note that the Orthodox Church has resumed that role as of late, with Patriarch Kirill taking a more front and center role in the government of Russia, acting at times as a defacto ambassador for Russia and also having a very public opinion on different pieces of legislation in the Duma.

It also explores the past relationships with its near abroad neighbors, in this case, the Poles who for a while placed several rulers on the throne in Moscow. The takeaway from this is that in order to understand how Russia sees itself in relation to its neighbors, observers have to take a very deep dive in history to get a good understanding. Not only did the Poles conquer Moscow, but a Catholic was placed on a throne, anathema to a country that is so proudly Orthodox. One can take a shorter view of history with a different neighbor and see why the relationships today are less than positive. A little over a year ago, Russia invaded Georgia. While Georgians and Russians have never been fans of each other, an understanding of pre and post WWII history gives one a little understanding of it. Remember that Stalin succeeded Lenin and launched a series of bloody purges on the Russians (and other countries in the USSR too) and other brutalities. Keep in mind that Stalin was Georgian so now it becomes clear why the Russians and the Georgians have little love for each other.

One other theme that comes through in the movie is the Russian tendancy to turn to a Russian leader who is shows a strong hand during times of trouble. The concept is mentioned several times throughout the movie and concludes with an epilogue that segueways into the rule of the Romanovs that lasts until Nicholas abdicates in 1917.

While the movie is not a true historical portrayal, it does convey to the western viewer an understanding of the Russian thought process. So if your looking for a good way to kill a few hours watching a good movie, give 1612 some consideration. It is available in DVD with english subtitles if you are not a russian speaker. Sphere: Related Content