2012 Elections news

LA Times story on Putin's latest moves toward the 2012 elections. It seems he's out and about on a psuedo campaign. With a higher profile now, it may be the start of him attempting to retake the presidency in two years. Time will tell.

Contrast the LA Times story of Putin's activities with this clip from the current president that he posted on twitter. I'm sure Medvedev has done alot more (I've been very behind on my russian news) but it sounds like Putin may have the lead on him in terms of dealing with the recent disasters in Russia and portraying himself as the more able leader.
Sphere: Related Content

Busted!

Woke up this morning to the report that the FBI had (or is) arrested 11 members of a russian spy ring operating on the East Coast. According to the new reports, all were "illegals" operating under a cover provided by the SVR. Oleg Kalugin is quoted as being surprised that the SVR had so many "illegals" operating here in the states.

So the question stands that as to why now? What will the impact be on US-Russia relations. As to the why now, I don't know, but it will be interesting to see when and how the Russians drop the other shoe in Moscow. If anything, the spy ring may have made some critical advance in it efforts to There is most likely an interesting backstory to this that we will not be privy to for several years. What will the impact be on relations? Probably none as the Russians have begun to tilt a little more westward. Sphere: Related Content

President Medvedev hits the Twitter...

Prez D Medvedev has gone and gotten a Twitter account just in time for the G20 conference in Toronto. I'll have to say he's not doing a bad job of tweeting. But based on his tweets you can see where he is pushing his international agenda with his Twitter that

The #G8 and #G20 were productive. We discussed important issues for everyone: drug trafficking, the environment, nuclear safety and finance.

Although I think he needs to get the word out more. He does trail Prez Obama by about 44 million followers. Sphere: Related Content

Russia wants to build new US air refueling tanker?

Saw this interesting report on CNN this morning. While it will most likely be DOA in the US Congress for several reasons, it was interesting to read this. While the Russian side of the story focused on the economic aspects such a deal, such as broader access to foreign markets, the reader can't help to wonder about how it ties in with Russia's military modernization efforts. Russia is still pushing forward with its purchase of an amphibious ship from France and UAVs from different countries. So I think in the end, this proposal represents two efforts by the Russians, an attempt to gain better access to various markets based their competition for the refueling tanker and more access to western technology and the acquisition process. Sphere: Related Content

This is a follow up of sorts to my post on "Operation Sapphire", which was the US operation to remove a large amount of highly enriched uranium from Kazakhstan.

The Washington Post today has an online pictorial and story by Philip Pan that describe the results of Soviet nuclear weapons testing in Kazakhstan and the current struggle to control access to uranium in the country. Pan does a good job looking in depth at the issues of uranium access that cross borders from Russia, to Japan, North America and Europe. One note on the online pictorial, some of the images of the people affected by the radiation from the testing can be rather graphic and stark, so consider yourself warned before you click on the link.

What should be of concern in who ends up with control of Kazakh uranium are the regional concerns as Iran looks to develop its nuclear program. While it looks like there is no direct outright connection between Kazakh uranium and Iran's nuclear program has been acknowledeged officially that I know of, the geography of the area makes the possibility of a connection a little more real.

David Hoffman, a Washington Post contributing editor, has released a new book, Dead Hand, that explores the history of the US/USSR arms race during the 80s and 90s. In it, he devotes a few pages to Operation Sapphire in which he does report a connection between Kazakhstan and Tehran. His reporting only makes the concern of a connection between Central Asia and Iran's nuclear program a little more real. If you don't have time to get the book, take a listen to Terrry Gross' interview with Hoffman on her NPR Show Fresh Air.

Thanks to the Perry Castaneda online map collection at University of Texas for the map of Central Asia. Sphere: Related Content

Reflections on the Soviet Experience in Afghanistan

Two articles have caught my attention over the past few days in relation to the Red Army in Afghanistan. The first one comes from Danger Room as a crosspost from russian navy blog. It's an old Red Army document given to soldiers to better understand the Afghan culture in an attempt to keep the soldiers from crossing cultural lines. It comes across as pretty well thought out and seems similiar to another document that the US Army put out in WWII for US soldiers operating in Iraq.

The second was a Radio Free Europe news story via Dave Johnson's Reading List (awesome reading list BTW!!) that looks back at the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan 30 years ago. While the article is generally good in its arguments, one part stands out. Gregory Feifer, the author makes a somewhat flawed conclusion at the end of the article, italics added:

"Vostrotin and other veterans predict that the United States is doomed to the same fate the Soviet forces met in Afghanistan. But despite their obvious similarities, the conflicts differ in fundamental ways. U.S. and NATO fighting forces are far better trained and equipped, and Afghans still support the international drive to establish a viable Afghan state."

One could make the argument that the soviets were better trained and equipped with the latest in Soviet Army technology, or similarly about the US Army in Vietnam. At the end of the day, take a look at who was left standing in each country. Or better yet, recall the conversation between a US negotiator and his North Vietnamese counterpart at the end of the Vietnam War where the US Officer, in an attempt to salvage some pride tells the other officer that the US Army never lost a battle in Vietnam. The Vietnamese officer ponders the statement for a second and then tells the American that while true, it was the American, that was standing there suing for peace.

Though I wouldn't quite go along with the narrative that the US is doomed to failure in Afghanistan simply due to the past history of foreign armies in Afghanistan, it would be well served to have a complete grasp of history in Afghanistan and realize when its pitching down well down roads, as Feifer shows in his article. Sphere: Related Content

Corruption in the Russian Military

Thankfully, layovers in airports give you time to catch up on stuff, like blogging! Woo-hoo!

This new report popped up in the Barents Observer on the level of corruption in the Russian Military. Last year (2009) approximately 3 billion rubles of defense spending was lost to bribes. While corruption is a given in any military system due to the fairly large commit of national funds to militaries these days, what stands out in this story is the fact that the amount from this past year was double from last year.

So far, eight generals were relieved and sentenced to jail time ranging from three to five years. While it is good to have heads roll at the top for crimes such as this, it is indicative that corruption and bribery is indemic at all levels of russian government, from the justice system, to education. President Medvedev has made anti-corruption a major facet in his term as president insisting that govt officials have complete transparency in their financial dealings and compensation so as to make it apparent when someone is living outside the means one would expect of such an official.

As reforms continue (or don't) especially in the military realm, more such convictions at all levels must be a facet to make it clear that the Russian military is leaving the old ways behind as it strives to make professionalism a hall mark of its reformed military. Reform of the military is more than just new purchases of equipment, it is a major change in the way that the officers and sergeants see their service.

OK, time to go catch a jetplane!

Credit to Barents Observer for the pic. Sphere: Related Content